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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.